Thermometer RisingClimate Change and Canadas Economic Future. Introduction. It is my privilege to speak to you about the economic implications of climate changeone of the biggest challenges facing Canada and the world in the 2. Let me first congratulate the Finance and Sustainability Initiative for your leadership in promoting responsible investment for sustainable development. Your work is vital to putting finance at the service of environmental sustainabilityhelping the private sector to identify the risks and opportunities inherent in climate change and green finance. The connection between climate change and the Bank of Canadas responsibilities for the stability of prices and the financial system is not an obvious one. File Layout Peoplecode Peoplesoft there. We are not experts on climate science, nor do we control the tools to limit global warming. 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I will discuss some of the challengesas well as the opportunities, because there are manythat lie ahead for Canada. I will also talk about how the work of the Bank connects with these issues. The Future Becomes the Present. Here in Montral in early March, it might be tempting to think that rising temperatures could be a welcome change for Canada. But, as we know, that would be wrong. Global warming is already having negative effects, with significant economic costs compounding a heavy human toll around the world, including in Canada. Climate scientists are convinced that global warming is, at least to a large extent, attributable to human activity. Climate systems, like economic systems, are complicated the forces at work can interact in unforeseen ways, so there are some significant unknowns. But these unknowns are all the more reason to act, especially if they imply even a small risk of a truly catastrophic outcome. Correspondingly, while the economic costs of climate change are uncertain they are likely to be significant. In Canada alone, it has been estimated that, in the absence of action to address global warming, we would face annual costs of between 2. Such costs would take a number of forms. Global warming is associated with more frequent extreme weather eventssuch as floods, droughts and forest fireswhich often have tragic consequences at the human level. In economic terms, such events can have a very high price tag. Take, as an illustration, the wildfires in Alberta, which deducted about 1 per cent of Canadas GDP in the second quarter of 2. While the economy subsequently rebounded, this event was a setback to Canadas return to full potential. We know that such extreme weather related events are already more frequent than they were in the past. They will become even more so as average global temperatures continue to rise, even if action is taken now to address climate change. But in the absence of such action, the tab will be much larger. There are also risks to specific sectors associated with climate changesome of which have started to materialize. For example, the forestry sector has seen the epidemic infestation of the mountain pine beetle, the agricultural sector is facing more frequent droughts and the mining sector encounters infrastructure challenges when ice roads become impassable. It is likely that further implications, as yet unknown, will become evident as global warming progresses. In economic terms, such events have effects on both aggregate supply and demand. As a central bank, we can react to events as they occur. But we cannot build them into our economic forecasts or adjust our monetary policy in advance because each is unique and unpredictable. In the short run, they may be viewed as a downside risk to economic activity in Canada, which we would take into account in our risk management framework for monetary policy. Over a longer period, that downside turns from risk into near certaintythat is, a lower growth track for the Canadian economy than we would otherwise achieve. Let me turn to discuss two important tools that are at our disposal to address climate change carbon pricing and green finance. Getting the Price Right. In economic terms, climate change is a negative externality. Any individual or company that engages in activities that generate greenhouse gases imposes a cost on everyone else by contributing to climate change. Establishing a price for carbon emissions forces polluters to bear those wider societal coststhus internalizing the externality. Based on this logic, setting the right price for carbon is at the core of Canadas strategy to tackle climate change. In a market economy, prices are the mechanism through which decisions of individuals and companies are coordinated. Using that mechanism to address carbon emissions aligns environmentally sustainable goals with the self interests of individuals and companies. Of course, the right pricing does not mean that greenhouse gas emissions and global warming would stop. It only means that environmental costs are properly weighed against the benefits of the activities that generate the emissions. We can set a price for carbon through a carbon tax or a cap and trade system. Either way, we create incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the most efficient way possible. These incentives motivate several kinds of changes in behaviour byencouraging the use of existing technologies to reduce carbon emissions,inspiring the development of new technologies, andhelping shift consumption and investment toward those goods and services that require less carbon to produce. While some are skeptical that pricing will motivate changes in behaviour, experience confirms that price incentives work. An example is British Columbias carbon tax, which is estimated to have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 5 to 1. Other examples include the widespread switch to smaller cars, prompted by the oil price spikes of the 1. Properly aligned incentives can reduce the need for pervasive regulation. Of course, regulation has its place as a complement to pricing. But given how energy is used in a modern economy, and the magnitude of the changes required, regulation alone cannot possibly do as comprehensive and consistent a job of changing the behaviours and activities that generate greenhouse gases. Of course, carbon pricing has economic consequences most directly, it is costly for households and businesses to transition to a smaller carbon footprint. But those consequences need not all be negative. They depend very much on how the revenues from carbon pricing are used. For example, the revenues from carbon taxation could be used to lower the burden of other taxes. That is the approach followed in British Columbia, where the carbon tax enabled the provincial government to reduce personal income taxes and corporate taxes by a roughly equal amount. Such revenues could also be used to smooth the transition for affected industries and households and to address concerns about how the cost of carbon pricing is distributed.